UPDATE 1-IMS lowers global phamaceutical forecast for 2009

NEW YORK -
* IMS now sees global growth of 2.5-3.5 pct
* Sees $750 bln 2009 sales, down from prior $820 bln view
* US market to decline by 1-2 percent
* China set to become 3rd largest market in 2011

The worldwide economic crisis is taking a tougher-than-expected toll on the pharmaceutical market, according to the leading tracker of prescription drug data.
IMS Health Inc (RX.N) now expects the global pharmaceutical market to grow by an anemic 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent in 2009, down 2 percentage points from the forecast it issued six months earlier, and the lowest growth rate in at least 25 years.
"We see the worldwide financial crisis contributing to record-low sales growth this year," Murray Aitken, senior vice president for Healthcare Insight at IMS, said in a statement.
Traditionally considered more impervious to economic downturns than other sectors, the pharmaceutical industry is feeling the pinch this time. Sales in the world's largest market, the United States, are seen declining by 1 percent to 2 percent in 2009 -- the first decline since IMS started tracking U.S. sales data in 1957.
With the first quarter of the year in the books, IMS now foresees global pharmaceutical sales of $750 billion, down from the $820 billion it forecast for 2009 last October.
"To the now familiar factors impeding market growth, such as patent expirations, a slowdown in innovative product launches, and hurdles imposed by payers on market access, we can now overlay the economic downturn," Aitken said.
A Thomson Reuters health care survey released this week found that one in five U.S. households postponed or canceled medical care over the past year. IMS said it has seen a reduction in patients beginning chronic therapy regimens in areas such as diabetes, hypertension, insomnia and depression.
Patent expirations of a number of billion-dollar drugs in 2011 will impact U.S. growth to the end of the forecast period in 2013, according to IMS.
Many of the world's top selling medicines will face competition from cheaper generic versions over the next few years, including Pfizer Inc's (PFE.N) more than $12 billion a year cholesterol fighter Lipitor in 2011. Sales of branded drugs quickly evaporate when faced with generic versions.
Volatility in currency markets caused by the reeling global economy also impacted the projected global growth rate once local currencies were converted into U.S. dollars, IMS said.
The emerging pharmaceutical markets of China, Brazil, India, Korea, Mexico, Turkey and Russia are expected to see sales grow by 13 percent to 16 percent through 2013, IMS said.
The forecast sees China becoming the third-largest market by 2011, up from its current sixth place ranking.
By contrast, IMS sees a compound annual growth rate of just 1-4 percent through 2013 from the mature markets of Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Britain, Spain and Canada.
Overall, IMS projects global sales to rise by 3-6 percent a year on average through 2013.
Some two thirds of the 50 to 60 new medicines expected to be launched over the next two years will be specialist-driven drugs aimed at narrow patient populations, IMS predicted.
It sees six to 10 drugs with billion-dollar a year potential among the expected 2009 and 2010 launches. The likely winners cited by IMS include Eli Lilly and Co's (LLY.N) blood clot preventer prasugrel, Amgen Inc's (AMGN.O) osteoporosis treatment denosumab, Novo Nordisk's (NOVOb.CO) diabetes medicine liraglutide, and the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) psoriasis treatment ustekinumab.
But predicting blockbusters can be a tricky proposition. There have been some high profile busts among drugs once listed as future 'can't miss' blockbusters, including the Sanofi-Aventis(SASY.PA) weight loss pill Acomplia, that proved to be a major disappointment, and a Pfizer cholesterol drug, torcetrapib, that never reached the market.